Random forests as a tool to understand the snow depth distribution and its evolution in mountain areas     

Jesús Revuelto  Paul Billecocq  François Tuzet  Bertrand Cluzet  Maxim Lamare  Fanny Larue  Marie Dumont 《水文研究》2020,34(26):5384-5401

The small scale distribution of the snowpack in mountain areas is highly heterogeneous, and is mainly controlled by the interactions between the atmosphere and local topography. However, the influence of different terrain features in controlling variations in the snow distribution depends on the characteristics of the study area. As this leads to uncertainties in high spatial resolution snowpack simulations, a deeper understanding of the role of terrain features on the small scale distribution of snow depth is required. This study applied random forest algorithms to investigate the temporal evolution of snow depth in complex alpine terrain using as predictors various topographical variables and in situ snow depth observations at a single location. The high spatial resolution (1 m x 1 m) snow depth distribution database used in training and evaluating the random forests was derived from terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) devices at three study sites, in the French Alps (2 sites) and the Spanish Pyrenees (1 site). The results show the major importance of two topographic variables, the topographic position index and the maximum upwind slope parameter. For these variables the search distances and directions depended on the characteristics of each site and the TLS acquisition date, but are consistent across sites and are tightly related to main wind directions. The weight of the different topographic variables on explaining snow distribution evolves while major snow accumulation events still take place and minor changes are observed after reaching the annual snow accumulation peak. Random forests have demonstrated good performance when predicting snow distribution for the sites included in the training set with R² values ranging from 0.82 to 0.94 and mean absolute errors always below 0.4 m. Oppositely, this algorithm failed when used to predict snow distribution for sites not included in the training set, with mean absolute errors above 0.8 m.  相似文献   

Exploring the spatiotemporal variability of the snow water equivalent in a small boreal forest catchment through observation and modelling     

Achut Parajuli  Daniel F. Nadeau  François Anctil  Annie-Claude Parent  Benjamin Bouchard  Médéric Girard  Sylvain Jutras 《水文研究》2020,34(11):2628-2644

In snow-fed catchments, it is crucial to monitor and model the snow water equivalent (SWE), particularly when simulating the melt water runoff. SWE distribution can, however, be highly heterogeneous, particularly in forested environments. Within these locations, scant studies have explored the spatiotemporal variability in SWE in relation with vegetation characteristics, with only few successful attempts. The aim of this paper is to fill this knowledge gap, through a detailed monitoring at nine locations within a 3.49 km² forested catchment in southern Québec, Canada (47°N, 71°W). The catchment receives an annual average of 633 mm of solid precipitation and is predominantly covered with balsam fir stands. Extracted from intensive field campaign and high-resolution LiDAR data, this study explores the effect of fine scale forest features (tree height, tree diameter, canopy density, leaf area index [LAI], tree density and gap fraction) on the spatiotemporal variability in the SWE distribution. A nested stratified random sampling design was adopted to quantify small-scale variability across the catchment and 1810 manual snow samples were collected throughout the consecutive winters of 2016–17 and 2017–18. This study explored the variability of SWE using coefficients of variation (CV) and relating to the LAI. We also present existing spatiotemporal differences in maximum snow depth across different stands and its relationship with average tree diameter. Furthermore, exploiting key vegetation characteristics, this paper explores different approaches to model SWE, such as multiple linear regression, binary regression tree and neural networks (NN). We were unable to establish any relationship between the CV of SWE and the LAI. However, we observed an increase in maximum snow depth with decreasing tree diameter, suggesting an association between these variables. NN modelling (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE] = 0.71) revealed that, snow depth, snowpack age and forest characteristics (tree diameter and tree density) are key controlling variables on SWE. Using only variables that are deemed to be more readily available (snow depth, tree height, snowpack age and elevation), NN performance falls by only 7% (NSE = 0.66).  相似文献   

DEM investigations of internal erosion: Grain transport in the light of micromechanics     

Antoine Wautier  Stéphane Bonelli  François Nicot 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2019,43(1):339-352

Internal erosion by suffusion can change dramatically the constitutive behavior of granular materials by modifying the fabric of granular materials. In this study, the effect of an internal fluid flow on granular materials is investigated at the material point scale using the numerical coupling between a discrete element method (DEM) and a pore-scale finite volume (PFV) coupling scheme. The influence of the stress state and the hydraulic loading (direction and intensity) on the occurrence of grain transport in dense widely graded granular samples is thus investigated and interpreted in terms of micromechanics. In particular, it is shown that grain transport is increased when the macroscopic flow direction is aligned with the privileged force chain orientation. The stress-induced microstructure modifications are shown to influence the transport distances by controlling the number of rattlers.  相似文献   

Wall-slab joint parameter identification of a reinforced concrete structure using possibly corrupted modal data     

Hugo Oliveira  François Louf  Estelle Hervé-Secourgeon  Fabrice Gatuingt 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(1):19-39

In numerical models, the connections among component members are crucial for the prediction of structural behaviour under different types of solicitations. In reinforced structures, the connections are often assumed rigid, what may not be realistic in many practical cases. As alternative, a semi-rigid behaviour depending on a set of independent parameters can be proposed. In this case, a new difficulty arises, which is finding the appropriate values for those parameters. The present study proposes a numerical strategy for identification of the connection parameters based on the constitutive relation error (CRE). To include all available information, an augmented version (Modified CRE) is implemented. The parameters search is iterative and require large amount of system response analysis. To increase the computational efficiency, a reduced order model is adopted. The proposed approach shows low-sensitivity to limited lack of information and also to support condition variability, both of them verified numerically. In this work, experimental tests for a real 1:4 scale structure is utilized for finding the parameters corresponding to the first three modal shapes. A good agreement between numerical predictions and observations is verified, what highlights the accuracy and stability of the proposed numerical approach. The present study may also find applications in the domain of design of experiments.  相似文献   

Correction to: Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Sera River Basin using logistic regression model     

Raja  Nussaïbah B.  Çiçek  Ihsan  Türkoğlu  Necla  Aydin  Olgu  Kawasaki  Akiyuki 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(3):1423-1423

Natural Hazards - The article “Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Sera River Basin using logistic regression model,” written by Nussaïbah B. Raja, Ihsan Çiçek, Necla...  相似文献   

Sunspot Catalogue of the Observatory of the University of Coimbra (1929 – 1941)     

V. M. S. Carrasco  J. M. Vaquero  M. C. Gallego  A. Lourenço  T. Barata  J. M. Fernandes 《Solar physics》2018,293(11):153

A sunspot catalogue was published by the Coimbra Astronomical Observatory (Portugal), which is now called the Geophysical and Astronomical Observatory of the University of Coimbra, for the period 1929?–?1941. We digitalised data included in that catalogue and provide a machine-readable version. We show the reconstructions for the (total and hemispheric) sunspot number index and sunspot area according to this catalogue and compare it with the sunspot number index (version 2) and the Balmaceda sunspot area series (Balmaceda et al. in J. Geophys. Res.114, A07104, 2009). Moreover, we also compared the Coimbra catalogue with records made at the Royal Greenwich Observatory. The results demonstrate that the historical catalogue compiled by the Coimbra Astronomical Observatory contains reliable sunspot data and can therefore be considered for studies about solar activity.  相似文献   

New geomorphological and chronological constraints for glacial deposits in the Rivoli‐Avigliana end‐moraine system and the lower Susa Valley (Western Alps,NW Italy)          下载免费PDF全文

Susan Ivy‐Ochs  Stefania Lucchesi  Paolo Baggio  Gianfranco Fioraso  Franco Gianotti  Giovanni Monegato  Angela A. Graf  Naki Akçar  Marcus Christl  Francesco Carraro  Maria Gabriella Forno  Christian Schlüchter 《第四纪科学杂志》2018,33(5):550-562

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A new software on TUG-T60 autonomous telescope for astronomical transient events     

Murat Dindar  Selçuk Helhel  Hasan Esenoğlu  Murat Parmaksızoğlu 《Experimental Astronomy》2015,39(1):21-28

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A RANS-VoF Numerical Model to Analyze the Output Power of An OWC-WEC Equipped with Wells and Impulse Turbines in A Hypothetical Sea-State     

Teixeira  Paulo R. F.  Gonçalves  Rafael A. A. C.  Didier  Eric 《中国海洋工程》2020,34(6):760-771

China Ocean Engineering - Wave energy is a renewable source with significant amount in relation to the global demand. A good concept of a device applied to extract this type of energy is the...  相似文献   

A new method for aquifer system identification and parameter estimation     

Cem B. Avci  A.Ufuk Şahin  Emin Çiftçi 《水文研究》2013,27(17):2485-2497

The standard practice for assessing aquifer parameters is to match groundwater drawdown data obtained during pumping tests against theoretical well function curves specific to the aquifer system being tested. The shape of the curve derived from the logarithmic time derivative of the drawdown data is also very frequently used as a diagnostic tool to identify the aquifer system in which the pumping test is being conducted. The present study investigates the incremental area method (IAM) to serve as an alternative diagnostic tool for the aquifer system identification as well as a supplement to the aquifer parameter estimation procedure. The IAM based diagnostic curves for ideal confined, leaky, bounded and unconfined aquifers have been derived as part of this study, and individual features of the plots have been identified. These features were noted to be unique to each aquifer setting, which could be used for rapid evaluation of the aquifer system. The effectiveness of the IAM methodology was investigated by analyzing field data for various aquifer settings including leaky, unconfined, bounded and heterogeneous conditions. The results showed that the proposed approach is a viable method for use as a diagnostic tool to identify the aquifer system characteristics as well as to support the estimation of the hydraulic parameters obtained from standard curve matching procedures. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献